Something strange is happening in Test Cricket – for once, it’s a good thing

“The tour is only a matter of hours, but the ironic thought occurs to me that reputations will almost certainly be destroyed in the coming months.” Geoffrey Boycott’s pessimistic and concise aside in his chronicles of England’s tour of the West Indies in 1981, Life in the fast laneserves as a helpful guide to the challenges of a test series abroad. Almost since the beginning of Test cricket, it has been easy for touring players to adopt a defeatist view – heading by sea or, more recently, by air to distant lands, many cynical international cricketers know that they are only at one point in time. hide from nothing.

Because historically, the odds were largely in favor of the organizing teams. Whether it’s friendly umpires, knowledge of conditions or simply the comfort of home, only twice in Test history have visiting teams won more than 40% of their matches in a calendar year.

While the first of these, 2021, can be explained in part by the peculiarities of a pandemic, the fact that 2024 is the other requires further examination. Because something strange is happening. In this World Test Championship cycle, Australia swept a series away to New Zealand. New Zealand did the same in India. India won in South Africa. South Africa won in Bangladesh. Bangladesh won in Pakistan. Pakistan won in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka upset England at The Oval; West Indies stunned Australia in Brisbane.

These don’t appear to be bugs in the system, but a significant change in the patterns of an age-old game. While the great teams of the past (Lloyd’s West Indies, Waugh and Ponting’s Australia) have been the exceptions that prove the rule. These are teams in varying states and conditions, yet disproving the adages that sustained success away from home is almost impossible.

Highest percentage of away wins in Test cricket by calendar year

Data via Wisden.com

So what’s going on? Well, perhaps it’s worth first considering the other statistical quirk that makes 2024 an outlier. Excellent data querying by the Wisden Cricket Weekly The podcast revealed that this year is the year with the lowest average bowling strike rate since 1907. Basically, batters have never had a harder time occupying the field.

This reflects a statistical decline in batting standards. Since 2018 – among those with a large sample size, with apologies to Yashasvi Jaiswal, Harry Brook and Kamindu Mendis – only Kane Williamson has averaged above 50 with the bat in Test cricket, with Joe Root and Steve Smith just below the brand. During the comparative period between 2011 and 2017, 12 hitters held averages in the 50s or higher.

While some former professionals suggest that the dominance of white-ball cricket led to less secure defensive techniques, the devaluation of the toss is perhaps more telling. Sparked in part by the launch of a World Test Championship that gives little reward to teams sharing the spoils, captains have also realized that result cricket is generally more entertaining. Matches rarely continue until the final session of the fifth day, or even until now. Faster scoring rates mean big totals can still be achieved while still allowing 40 wickets to fall; pitches more suitable for bowlers also played a role.

Bold decisions or approaches can bring both sides into the game – take Ben Stokes’ statement at Mount Maunganui last year, or India’s frankly absurd 285/9 from 35 overs against Bangladesh in Kanpur in September . Some work, some don’t, but the fact that there has only been one Test draw in 2024 shows that virtually every match now ends with a winner and a loser.

So-called results tossing also contributes to the overall competitiveness of a format in which some nations struggle for consistent cricket. Even the best hitters usually need time in the middle to refine and perfect their game, but spicier surfaces can level the playing field. Countries like West Indies and South Africa are struggling to find consistent run makers , but continue to produce exceptional fast bowlers who can achieve victories when circumstances and conditions permit.

The proliferation of T20 leagues has also had an impact. While stories like that of Shamar Joseph show there is still room for a thunderclap, even a number of nascent Test players are now familiar with the conditions and opposition thanks to their experiences on the franchise circuit. While unorthodoxy can still be beneficial, vast reconnaissance networks and granular data analysis mean that players, if they choose, can be better prepared than ever for the challenges they will face abroad .

The schedule congestion also had a knock-on effect by reducing the number of long series played. Only India, England and Australia regularly play five-match matches; the financial realities of a sport sometimes without spectators force others to be content to play only two or three Tests at a time. While it’s a shame, the long tours of the past would have been costly – just look at how England unraveled towards the end of a winless run in the United States since 2010/11 to see the toll that this can do.

Perhaps a shorter series allows teams to feel more ready to fight. With fewer warm-up matches and top Test players involved in first-class cricket, the hosts may also be caught off guard – England’s maiden Test victory in Hyderabad in January and India’s triumph in Perth last week are two great victories that challenge the idea. that it takes time to adapt to very different conditions.

Is this year an aberration or a sign of a future where home-field advantage is less crucial? We can hope that this is the case. Test cricket needs spectator growth if it is to persist and thrive, and there is no doubt that the red-ball game is more fun if both sides genuinely have a chance more often. The fact that five teams remain in contention to make the World Test Championship final next summer is evidence of a format that is perhaps more unpredictable than ever.