by Fenway Sports Group, the John W Henry-led company that owns a majority stake in Liverpool FC, does not need to look too far back in its own history to find a lesson that should help resolve Mohamed Salah’s contract situation.
In February 2020, Mookie Betts was one of the best baseball players on the planet. It took him just over a year to propel the Boston Red Sox – also owned by FSG – to a World Series triumph. He was 27 years old, at the top of his game. He was an American League MVP and a four-time All-Star. He was also set to become a free agent.
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Inspired by Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s, the team of Moneyball fame, and led by young general manager Theo Epstein, the Red Sox ended an 86-year World Series drought in 2004 thanks, in part, to their adoption of the analysis.
Emboldened by what they saw in the game’s underlying numbers, they had traded wildly popular shortstop Nomar Garciaparra midway through that season and made shrewd, franchise-changing additions from players up then little-known like Kevin Millar and David ‘Big Papi’ Ortiz.
The data helped them build three more title-winning teams, in 2007, 2013 and 2018. It also asked them to trade Betts.
Believing that the length of his next contract would last well beyond his remaining prime years and prioritizing financial flexibility to secure the future of their franchise star, the Red Sox failed to present Betts with a offer which, according to him, corresponded to his market value. Rather than letting him walk for free, Boston traded Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Red Sox received in return a relatively thin package consisting of Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong and Jeter Downs. Only Wong is still at the club. Betts received a 12-year, $365 million contract.
In the five years since leaving Boston, Betts has won two World Series and finished in the top five in MVP standings three times. Over the same period, the Red Sox have recorded only one winning season.
And now FSG are facing a similar situation with their Premier League club. Salah is undoubtedly one of the greatest players in Liverpool’s storied history. Signed from Roma for £36.5million in 2017, he has scored 223 goals in 368 appearances for the Anfield side. He was the star of their first top-flight league title in almost three decades when the Reds won the Premier League in 2020, a year after helping them to Champions League glory.
At the end of the current season, his contract – if not renewed – will expire. This is an even more serious stay-or-go dilemma than Betts leaving, because there will be no trade return. And unlike standard practice in the NFL, free agent departures cannot generate compensatory picks for a draft that doesn’t exist.
Liverpool’s recent success has been just as data-driven as the Red Sox’s 21st century revival. It would be contrary to unwritten policy to offer a large, long-term contract to a player in his thirties, at which point analytical data predicts a rapid and severe decline in performance.
Salah is 32 years old. He is already Liverpool’s top earner and the eighth highest paid player in the world, on a salary of £350,000 a week.
He’s also arguably still the best player in the Premier League. Liverpool, in their first season under new manager Arne Slot, sit top of the table after 12 games, eight points ahead of defending champions Manchester City. Their high position and considerable lead in the title race is largely down to Salah. With 10 goals and six assists, he has directly contributed to more goals than any other player.
There is also reason to believe that Salah will be able to avoid the type of decline typically seen in players his age and extend his prime longer than most. Indeed, compared to many of his superstar peers, he was a relatively late bloomer. He did not – like, say, Wayne Rooney, Cristiano Ronaldo or Neymar – play more than 50 elite-level games per season in his late teens.
Salah first moved to Europe at age 20 when he signed for Swiss club FC Basel. He then had an unsuccessful spell with Chelsea. It wasn’t until he joined Roma in 2015, aged 23, that he first played more than 1,500 minutes in a single season in one of Europe’s top leagues. The reduced wear and tear of a lower workload early in his career should contribute to his longevity.
Furthermore, the cost of acquiring a genuine, quality replacement for Salah would almost certainly be far greater than the price of keeping him. Just ask the Red Sox how their Betts succession plan went.
Betts wanted to stay at Fenway Park. “I know people don’t believe me, but I wanted to stay in Boston my whole career,” he told Foul Territory last year. “It was my life. I knew everyone there. it was a short flight to Nashville. It was perfect.
And Salah, speaking after Liverpool’s 3-2 win over Southampton in the Premier League last weekend, stressed his desire to stay at Liverpool and expressed his disappointment at not yet receiving a contract offer from the club.
“You know I’ve been at the club for many years,” he said. “There is no club like this. But ultimately, it’s not in my hands. As I said before, it’s December and I haven’t received anything about my future yet.
“I love the fans. The fans love me. Ultimately, it’s not in my hands or the fans’ hands. Let’s wait and see.
Analytics evangelists will attest that to fully realize the benefits of a data-driven approach, an unemotional adherence to the numbers is necessary at all times. But five years later, the Red Sox are still reeling from the loss of Betts. FSG must avoid their American wing’s biggest mistake when it comes to tying up Liverpool’s star winger.
