Nine points behind the championship leader, on a run of four matches without a win, Arsenal’s quest for the title is undoubtedly hanging by a thread. The first part of this campaign has gone without the calm assurance that defined the second half of last season, and Mikel Arteta needs an urgent improvement in his side’s results.
However, it is too early to say with certainty that Arsenal are no longer in the fight for the top of the table. In fact, there’s plenty of reason to believe they’re now through the muddiest, most turbulent part of their campaign – and a real opportunity awaits them over the next few months.
Why this optimism? Mainly because life is about to get a whole lot simpler. On paper at least. Arsenal’s schedule is getting easier, their captain is back fully fit and travel demands are about to be significantly reduced.
Rival fans will scoff at the suggestion that Arsenal have had a difficult start to the campaign, but it is obvious that their matches have been tougher than those of Liverpool and Manchester City.
In their first 11 games, Arsenal met the other six teams who finished in the top seven last season. Additionally, they faced five – Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, City, Newcastle United and Chelsea – away. Liverpool and City, on the other hand, only faced three of last season’s top seven.
Big game results are better this year
In these five away matches, Arsenal have taken eight points. In the same five games last season, they won five.
Opta ranked Arsenal’s first 11 games this season as the fifth most difficult series of opening matches faced by a Premier League team.
City’s first 11 matches were ranked as the third easiest, while Liverpool’s were the seventh easiest.
Arsenal now have a much more enjoyable run of games, starting with Saturday’s home game against Nottingham Forest. Opta’s assessment of the next 11 league matches is that Arsenal have the third easiest series of any team.
It should also be easier in terms of travel. Until the end of January, Arsenal’s matches only took them outside London once – a trip to Brighton, which was not the most tiring.
Over the next 11 matches, Arsenal will only have to travel a total of 128 miles. In their first 11 games, they covered 715 miles. Additionally, they will only play one European away game during this period – against Sporting Lisbon – compared to two trips to Italy (and a League Cup match at Preston) in the first part of campaign.
Odegaard returns and changes the game
The medium-term picture looks even more promising thanks to the return of Martin Odegaard. The captain, who is so fundamental to the style of play with and without the ball, made his first league appearance since August when he started at Stamford Bridge before the last international break.
There is no doubt that injuries were a major factor in this disappointing start. At various points, they found themselves without Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Mikel Merino, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben White, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Riccardo Calafiori and Jurrien Timber.
In total, Arsenal players have missed a total of 49 matches. In the first 11 games of last season, that number was just 28.
“I just pray that after the international break the team is fully equipped physically, that they are available and fit,” Arteta said after the draw against Chelsea. “Because it’s been a nightmare for eight weeks.
“Number after number, not only those who can’t play, but those who can only play for certain times, only for certain days, without being able to practice. So, I’m just asking this question, because the team, the desire they have and how much we want it, there’s no doubt about it. So it’s going to come, we just need that on our side to be able to be more consistent.
The most worrying news is that White and Leandro Trossard have been added to Chelsea’s injured list. White underwent minor knee surgery; Trossard limped off while in action for Belgium during the international break.
These injuries could make Arteta feel like he’s yet to wake up from his ‘absolute nightmare’, but that could all change this weekend. If they look to the short to medium term, Arsenal should find plenty of reasons to believe their dream of success is still alive.